The three ALE estimates
SecurAtlas presents three exposure scenarios side by side:| Estimate | Scenario | Color |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 40th percentile — a favorable year | Gray |
| Expected | Base case — the most probable outcome | Amber |
| High | 250th percentile — a severe incident year | Orange |
All figures are statistical estimates rounded to the nearest $10K. They are intended for risk awareness and do not constitute financial or legal advice. Actual exposure depends on incident severity, response costs, regulatory penalties, and insurance coverage.
How the model works
SecurAtlas calculates EAL using this formula: EAL = P × min(avg_breach_cost, annual_revenue × 30%) Where:- P is the breach probability derived from your risk score:
P = 0.80 − (risk_score ÷ 100 × 0.75) - avg_breach_cost is the industry benchmark from IBM’s Cost of a Data Breach report
- annual_revenue × 30% caps the exposure at a realistic maximum for your organization’s size — the formula uses whichever value is lower
Setting your financial inputs
The model needs accurate inputs to produce a meaningful estimate. Set these in Settings → Financial & Risk Inputs.Enter your annual revenue
Provide your organization’s annual revenue. This sets the 30% revenue cap used in the EAL formula. Without a revenue figure, the model falls back to your revenue range from your organization profile.
Select your industry
Choose your industry sector. SecurAtlas uses industry-specific breach cost benchmarks from IBM and Verizon DBIR data. Industries such as healthcare and financial services have higher average breach costs than general business.
Add additional inputs
Optionally provide employee count, endpoint count, estimated records held, and recovery time (RTO/RPO in hours). These inputs improve confidence in the model — the confidence level (Low, Medium, or High) is shown alongside your EAL figure.
Running the risk pipeline
After updating your financial inputs — or at any time when you want a fresh calculation — click Recalculate on the Financial Exposure page. This runs the risk pipeline, which:- Recalculates your risk score based on current control status and evidence
- Derives your updated breach probability from the new score
- Applies your financial inputs to produce new Low, Expected, and High EAL estimates
What reduces your exposure
The lower half of the Financial Exposure page shows the controls that have the highest potential to reduce your EAL if implemented. Each entry includes:- The control key and title
- Current status (not started or in progress)
- A risk impact percentage — how much this control could reduce your overall breach probability
- An estimated EAL reduction in dollars